Does your grocery bill already feel outrageous? Be ready, it’s only going to get worse. Starting March 4, 2025, a new policy from President Trump will impose a 25% tariff on imported goods from Mexico and Canada. And it’s not just eggs—prices across nearly every aisle will likely climb.
Why? Mexico and Canada are the top suppliers of agricultural products to the U.S. About 77% of our fresh produce comes from Mexico, and 34% of fresh meat comes from Canada. With these imports facing hefty tariffs, shoppers can expect noticeable price hikes. While the full impact remains unclear, experts warn that grocery costs will soon rise.
Target CEO Brian Cornell warned that the company may have to raise prices on fruits and vegetables soon due to President Trump’s new tariffs on Mexican exports. In a CNBC interview on Tuesday, Cornell noted that Target relies heavily on Mexican produce during the winter. “Those are categories where we’ll try to protect pricing, but the consumer will likely see price increases over the next couple of days,” he said.
What can budget-conscious shoppers do? Stock up now on essential food items from Mexico and Canada before prices jump in the coming weeks. Here are key groceries to buy in bulk while costs remain low.
Cereal Grains
Canada is a big exporter of wheat barley and oats. Thus, it is likely the price of cereals, oatmeal, flour and even oat milk will increase.
Avocados
The recent introduction of a 25% tariff on imports is expected to have a major impact on avocado prices in the United States. With Mexico supplying about 90% of the avocados consumed in the U.S., the market is especially vulnerable to these tariffs, according to The Sun.
Consumers should brace for significant price hikes. A large avocado that once cost $2.99 could rise to approximately $3.75, and in some areas, prices may surge even higher, potentially reaching $2 per avocado.
Strawberries
Mexico, one of the world’s top strawberry producers, supplied about 85% of U.S. strawberry imports in 2022, per the USDA. With the new 25% tariff, import costs have risen, likely driving up grocery store prices. Restaurants may also offset costs by increasing prices on fruit-based dishes.
Meat
As the top supplier of meat to the U.S., Canada’s exports will be affected by the new tariffs. Meat lovers may want to stock up and make room in their freezers for their favorite cuts.
Sugar
Mexico and Canada are nearly equal in supplying the U.S. with sugar, making tariffs a potential challenge for bakers. Sugar isn’t just for desserts—it’s a daily essential, often found in prepared foods. To stay ahead, consider picking up a bulk bag on your next grocery run.
Alcohol
With tariffs impacting imports, prices for beer, tequila, and whisky could rise. Since key beer ingredients like wheat and barley come from Canada, grabbing a few extra six-packs is a smart move.
Tomatoes
In 2023, the U.S. imported $3.2 billion in fresh tomatoes, with 86.1% coming from Mexico, per the USDA and The Sun. The new 25% tariff could drive up prices on fresh tomatoes and tomato-based products like salsa, pasta sauce, and ketchup. Mexican and Italian restaurants may also raise prices to offset rising costs.
Maple Syrup
Canada is the leading supplier of maple syrup to the U.S. It produced about 71% of the world’s maple syrup in 2023.
