It’s wise to take Donald Trump’s promises with a grain of salt.
The current president has long been known to exaggerate or embellish statements, and both before and during his time in office, he’s made numerous grandiose pledges that never materialized.
One promise he might actually face scrutiny for, however, came recently and involves giving nearly all Americans a $2,000 dividend.
According to Trump, the funds would come from his controversial tariff program. He pledged to distribute the payment to citizens who do not fall into the “high income” category.
Posting on Truth Social last week, Trump commented: “People that are against Tariffs are FOOLS! With Almost No Inflation, and A Record Stock Market Price. 401k’s are Highest EVER. We are taking in Trillions of Dollars and will soon start paying down our ENORMOUS DEBT, $37 Trillion. Record Investment in the USA, plants and factories going up all over the place.”
He added: “A dividend of at least $2000 a person (not including high income people!) will be paid to everyone.”
The post did not specify a timeline or clearly define eligibility criteria for the payment.
Unsurprisingly, skepticism quickly emerged. The Guardian analyzed potential obstacles, highlighting two major issues.
First, the cost: distributing $2,000 per person could total between $300 billion and $513 billion, depending on whether children are included and how eligibility is determined. Economist Erica York noted: “If the cutoff is $100,000, 150M adults would qualify, for a cost near $300 billion. … Tariffs have raised $90 billion of net revenues compared to Trump’s proposed $300 billion rebate.”
Second, legal challenges to the tariffs themselves could jeopardize funding.
The Supreme Court recently heard arguments contesting Trump’s use of emergency powers to implement tariffs, and three lower courts have already ruled the method illegal. If the tariffs are overturned, the money for any dividend would vanish.
Still, Trump provided an update last week, indicating any payments would likely be delayed until 2026. “It will be next year… The tariffs allow us to give a dividend. We’re going to do a dividend and we’re also going to be reducing debt,” he told reporters aboard Air Force One, according to The New York Post.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also addressed the plan in a Fox Business interview, announcing: “We will see. We need legislation for that.”
As with most politicians, Trump has a long record of unfulfilled promises. However, this one could carry more weight. Vague pledges such as building a wall or lowering the cost of living may be forgotten over time, but promising—explicitly—to hand every citizen $2,000 is likely something the public won’t easily overlook. 
