Trump’s Greenland play is about far more than real estate or bravado. It fuses tariffs, NATO pressure, and Arctic security into a single leverage campaign aimed at forcing Europe — and especially Denmark — to accept a new strategic map. By suspending tariffs on key European economies, Trump bought time and goodwill from nervous allies while signaling that the alternative could be far more destabilizing: a unilateral American move to solidify control over the Arctic gateway between North America and Europe.

Inside NATO, Rutte’s role is pivotal. If he can broker a formula that lets Denmark save face while granting Washington expanded rights and defenses in Greenland, the alliance survives the shock. If he fails, the U.S. may act alone, daring Europe to respond. In that scenario, Greenland becomes more than an island; it becomes the test of who really leads the West.