James Carville Predicts GOP Collapse After Trump Signs Controversial ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’

A Strategist Doubles Down

Veteran Democratic strategist James Carville isn’t backing off his prediction that Donald Trump’s administration is headed for a collapse. Now, he’s adding fuel to the fire by taking aim at Trump’s newly signed legislation—the so-called “One, Big Beautiful Bill Act.”

Carville, 80, first made headlines in February when he warned that Trump’s approval ratings were on a steady decline. At the time, the former president had issued controversial executive orders and fired thousands of federal workers—reportedly at the urging of Elon Musk, his former “First Buddy.”

“Just Play Possum”

Carville was so confident in the unraveling of the administration, he claimed Democrats didn’t even need to act. “Just play possum,” he advised. He predicted the fallout could happen within 30 days and that Democrats were poised to make significant midterm gains.

The ‘Beautiful Bill’ Backlash

Trump’s bill, signed into law on Independence Day, slashes Medicaid and food stamp funding while offering tax breaks to the wealthy. Though Trump praised it as “great,” critics—including Musk—have called it a financial disaster.

Musk labeled the bill an “abomination,” warning it would “massively increase” the national deficit and saddle Americans with “unsustainable debt.” The Congressional Budget Office supports that concern, estimating the bill could add $3.3 trillion to the debt.

Health and Economic Fears

Democrats argue the bill will devastate low-income Americans. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez claimed it would strip healthcare from 13.7 million people. Critics have dubbed it a “big, bad bill” and a “broken promise.”

Despite history showing the president’s party rarely loses seats in midterms, Carville believes this bill changes the game.

“A Mass Extinction Event”

Carville says the legislation could spark what he calls a “mass extinction event” for the GOP. “This thing is like 25, 26 points underwater already,” he said on CNN, “and we haven’t even started our education program.”

Joined by Democratic strategist Paul Begala, Carville predicted Democrats could gain 40+ House seats in 2026 by focusing solely on this bill. “We can all rally around this—regardless of ideology or region,” he added.

Begala agreed, blasting Trump for alienating his own supporters. “Trump won people on Medicaid. A good politician rewards his voters. A stupid one punishes them.”

Polls Show a Narrow Lead

Recent polls suggest a slight advantage for Democrats. A RealClearPolitics average gives them a 2.3-point lead, while an Emerson College poll from late June shows Democrats at 43%, Republicans at 40% in a generic congressional ballot.

Democrats Promise Accountability

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries joined the chorus, vowing that every swing-district Republican who backed the bill will face consequences in 2026. “They must be held accountable,” he said.