Trump’s proposed tariff dividend checks have become a symbol of both hope and doubt in an anxious economy. On paper, the idea is simple: tax foreign imports, then redirect that revenue into $2,000 payments for most Americans, especially those earning under $75,000 a year, or $150,000 for married couples. In reality, the path is tangled with legal, political, and economic obstacles that could easily derail it.

The timing alone has become a moving target, with Trump now pointing to late 2026, long after many expected relief. Legal experts warn that Congress would almost certainly need to approve such a program, while the Supreme Court’s looming decision on global tariffs could gut the very funding source. Even if it survives, budget watchdogs argue the math doesn’t work: projected tariff revenue falls far short of the hundreds of billions needed, raising the risk that this dramatic promise ends as another unresolved, election‑season fantasy.