Treasury Secretary Predicts Major Tax Refunds for Americans

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has projected that American households could receive “very large refunds” in the upcoming tax season, thanks to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

Speaking to NBC10 Philadelphia on Tuesday ahead of an event highlighting the Trump administration’s economic policies, Bessent said the new law would significantly impact refunds for the 2025 tax year. He emphasized that retroactive provisions would affect this year’s earnings, creating the potential for larger-than-usual returns.

“The bill was passed in July. Working Americans didn’t change their withholding, so they’re going to be getting very large refunds in the first quarter,” Bessent told NBC10.
“I think we’re going to see $100 to $150 billion in refunds, which could translate to between $1,000 and $2,000 per household.”

Refunds Could Translate to Higher Take-Home Pay

Bessent explained that after the first wave of refunds, taxpayers are expected to adjust their withholding for 2026. This adjustment could result in a tangible increase in take-home wages.

“Then they’ll change their withholding, and they’ll get a real increase in their wages. So I think 2026 can be a very good year,” he said.

The Treasury Secretary’s comments form part of a broader effort to highlight measures aimed at improving financial conditions for American households. Tax relief under the OBBBA is a cornerstone of this strategy, designed to ease the burden on working families.

Trump-Era Tax Cuts Extended

Beyond retroactive refunds, the OBBBA extends some elements of the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts that were set to expire this year. These include lower income tax rates and higher standard deductions, measures that would have otherwise phased out, potentially leaving taxpayers with higher liabilities in 2026.

President Trump commented on the upcoming tax season during a recent Cabinet meeting, calling it “projected to be the largest tax refund season ever”, emphasizing the administration’s focus on direct financial benefits for families.

Economic Relief Amid Rising Costs

Economic pressures remain high. A Fox News poll in November found that roughly three-quarters of Americans viewed economic conditions negatively, citing rising costs for groceries, housing, and healthcare. The larger refunds projected under the OBBBA could help families manage expenses and boost savings heading into 2026.

IRS Data Shows Scale of Potential Impact

Historical IRS data provides context. During the 2025 filing season:

• By early April, the IRS issued over $211 billion in refunds, averaging $3,116 per taxpayer.

• By mid-October, totals rose to $311 billion, with an average refund of $3,052 and over 102 million refunds issued.

With the new legislation, households may see even greater financial relief, increasing take-home income and helping offset rising living costs. Bessent framed the law as a direct opportunity for Americans to benefit from policy changes, describing the 2026 tax season as potentially transformative for families nationwide.